Are We Headed for a Credential Market Crash?

Before I say anything else, go take a look at this student loan debt clock.

Last time I checked, the number was at $1,720,946,567,201. Scary, right?

Everyone knows the total student loan debt is a huge number. But something about watching that clock really makes it sink in for me. 

However, experts disagree about the implications of this debt.

Here’s one side of the argument: More student debt = more people taking out loans = more students attending college. Therefore, the student debt is a good thing because our population is, in general, getting a higher education than before. 

But there’s another side to the debate, illustrated well in a recent study by the Roosevelt Institute:

Although the country’s populace is becoming more educated, each educational group is becoming less well paid. This is a result of declining worker power, which allows employers to demand a higher level of educational attainment for any given job, not a broken link between workforce skills and labor market demands.

-Roosevelt Institute, 2018


What exactly does this mean?  Basically, we’re witnessing credential inflation. 

Yes, more people are pursuing higher education.

Which means more people have degrees. 

Which means the average value of an individual degree decreases.

As a result, many employers have implemented even more advanced education requirements on job applications.

In other words, jobs that used to require a high school diploma now require a 2-year degree. Opportunities you could land with an associate’s degree now require a bachelor’s, and the list could go on. 

This isn’t because jobs have changed. (Though some certainly have.) Most impacted jobs don’t necessarily require more knowledge or more years of study than before.

It’s because the value of a degree has changed. As more people earn degrees, they’ve become less useful differentiators on the job market. 

And there’s no sign of this trend stopping anytime soon. (Take another look at that student debt clock.)

So naturally, employers are responding by looking for different signals. In many cases that means advanced degrees. And in other cases it means foregoing degree requirements altogether.

While it’s still common to hear people say, “If I want to get a good job there’s no option other than college” that sentiment is less of a guarantee than it once was.

Which is exactly why I bring it up today. Because while the relative “value” of a degree continues to decrease, the cost keeps going up.

And that poses a new challenge for anyone on the job market today (especially those with little to no experience):

How can I stand out?

I’ve already covered one option people choose: even more school. 

Or there’s another option. You could forge your own educational path and create a different kind of signal altogether. 

Neither one is easy. Neither one works for everyone.

There are ways to avoid the debt. There are ways to bypass the dreaded “degree required” on job applications. And yes, there are ways to build a meaningful career without pursuing even more school.

It’s up to you to decide which works for you. Which will you choose?

(originally published as a Praxis newsletter. Photo by Jonathan Borba on Unsplash)